Organization predicts fall in tourism travel to U.S. |

POWELL — While tourism in the U.S. is dominated by domestic travel, an international travel and tourism organization is predicting travel to the U.S. for tourism in 2025 will fall almost $50 billion below 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 

Losses this year alone could be more than $12.5 billion over 2024 spending estimates. 

The study was completed by the World Travel & Tourism Council, an organization dedicated to raising awareness of the full economic and social impact and potential of travel and tourism and representing the private sector. It said the U.S. is the only country among 184 economies analyzed by WTTC and Oxford Economics that is forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025. 

“This is a wake-up call for the U.S. government. The world’s biggest Travel & Tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” said WTTC President and CEO Julia Simpson. 

Notably, international visitor spending to the U.S. is projected to fall to just under $169 billion this year, down from $181 billion in 2024. 

This significant shortfall represents a 22.5% decline compared to the previous peak. 

However, the loss won’t be felt by the sector alone. 

The counsel stated in its annual report it represents a direct blow to the U.S. economy overall, impacting communities, jobs, and businesses — especially those relying on millions of visitors, like Yellowstone National Park and its five major gateway destinations. 

“Without urgent action to restore international traveler confidence, it could take several years for the U.S. just to return to pre-pandemic levels of international visitor spend, not even the peak from 10 years ago,” Simpson said. 

Leading the decline are visitors from Canada. Early reports on bookings are down over 20%. 

That impact has yet to be felt locally, at least by hotels. 

In Park County, lodging tax collections are up roughly 8% from the previous fiscal year, which runs through June, the first major tourist month. 

Canada is not only the top trading country with Wyoming and the rest of the Mountain West (No. 2 is Mexico), but it also accounts from many short vacations to neighboring destinations, like the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. 

“Canadian visitation is down and cancellations from Canada are up,” said Mike Knetemann, director of Digital Marketing at Yellowstone National Park Lodges, an arm of Xanterra Travel Collections, as reported in National Park Traveler. 

However, 2025 forecasts are well under actual losses being seen prior to the summer tourism season, according to Aran Ryan, a Tourism Economics (the Oxford Economics Company collaborating with the WTTC) expert from Philadelphia. 

“We’re looking at negative sentiment effects, which is basically Canadians and others are angry at us now; immigration and border uncertainty — it can be scary to cross borders, and stories of detainments don’t help; and third, we have a situation with a very strong U.S. dollar,” said Ryan, who is director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company. “[Visiting] the U.S. is about 20% more expensive than normal. So that’s another headwind that we’re seeing. And … we’re anticipating weaker economies in Canada and Mexico as these tariffs particularly impact our neighbors. And now we’re taking it home here and looking at uncertainties around the domestic economy and concerns about how the domestic traveler may pull back.” 

Many of the decisions to avoid travel to the U.S. have been based on Trump administration tariffs and fears of difficulties entering the U.S. under the current atmosphere, Ryan said during a presentation of the podcast “No Show” with Matt Brown and Jeff Foreman. 

“The tariff situation in and outside of America is changing daily, and while the emphasis has been on physical goods, there is a palpable shadow on tourism, not just from tariffs, but from a lot of factors that are going on right now with America and its place in the world,” he said. 

That includes losses from American tourists, who make up 90% of tourism in America. 

Based on higher prices for all goods due to tariffs, Ryan is suggesting Americans are showing signs of staying closer to home for vacations. 

The WTTC reported that while international tourists only make about 10% of the sector, growing the tourism sector is easiest done by appealing to international travelers — who spend more on their trips to American hotspots.

“Reliance on homegrown tourism is masking a serious vulnerability; the international market is where the real growth lies, and the U.S. is losing its crown,” according to the report. 

Countries already showing huge drops in travel to the U.S. include UK arrivals, one of the U.S.’s most important source markets, which is down nearly 15% year over year. Germany, another significant source market, plunged more than 28%. 

Other key markets include South Korea (down almost 15%), and the countries of Spain, Colombia, Ireland, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic, all seeing double-digit drops between 24% and 33%. 

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, new international arrivals data for March 2025 reveal a sharp and widespread drop in inbound travel from many of the country’s key source markets. 

At the same time, outbound travel is surging. According to the WTTC, Americans are traveling abroad in large numbers, yet inbound recovery from key markets has stalled. 

“The U.S. is welcoming fewer visitors from its neighbors and countries further afield, which is a clear indicator that the global appeal of the U.S. is slipping,” Simpso said. “This is about growth in the U.S. economy — it is doable, but it needs leadership from D.C.” 

Budget cuts

Further worries on the minds of business owners, travelers and public lands management are severe cuts proposed Friday by the Trump administration. 

The National Parks Conservation Association has calculated the Trump administration’s proposed cuts to the National Park Service budget could result in more than a 75% reduction to the National Park System. 

With 433 national park units across the country, that would essentially wipe out budgets and staffing for at least 350 national park units, the association said in a recent email exchange. 

The administration’s recently released budget proposal calls for a cut of more than $1 billion to the National Park Service, which includes a $900 million cut to the operations of our national parks, the largest proposed cut in the Park Service’s 109-year history. 

A list of targeted national parks will likely not be available until the president’s full budget comes out later this month. 

However, based on a review of the latest reliable budget data for each unit in the park system, achieving a $900 million cut to operations would require eliminating funding for roughly 350 park sites — from the smallest to some of the largest. 

“Despite their soaring popularity and the economic and cultural value they provide, the administration continues to systematically dismantle the Park Service — freezing hiring, forcing resignations, eliminating purchasing ability, canceling leases and banning travel. And with a major workforce reduction still looming, the worst is yet to come,” the association said. 

The new 1,200-page budget proposal document lays out massive cuts to programs and staffing across America’s public lands and national parks. Additionally, the budget proposes to raid the Land and Water Conservation Fund, using non-taxpayer funds to pay for park maintenance instead of land protection. 

This would effectively rescind the Great American Outdoors Act, which Congress passed in 2020 to provide permanent funding for LWCF, according to the Center for Western Priorities. 

“You can see why President Trump and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum tried to hide this budget proposal in the dead of night — it’s indefensible. Our national parks are already understaffed, and Burgum wants to eliminate another 5,000 positions from the Park Service alone,” said Center Deputy Director Aaron Weiss. “At the Bureau of Land Management, Burgum would effectively eliminate protections for America’s national monuments and national conservation areas, cutting funding by 75%. Recreation, maintenance, and habitat protection would all be devastated as well. All of this is consistent with Secretary Burgum’s dream of selling off America’s lands to the highest bidder because he refuses to take care of them.” 

Trump signed the landmark bipartisan Great American Outdoors Act into law in 2020. It has two major components: to fully and permanently fund the Land and Water Conservation Fund at $900 million per year and to provide $9.5 billion over five years ($1.9 billion annually) to address a maintenance backlog at American national parks, including updating facilities to increase accessibility for the general public. It was considered the most significant conservation legislation enacted in nearly half a century.